Mon, Nov 19, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 7, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 414 | 210 | 18 | 732 |
| OTT | 18 | 215 | 215 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Christian Jaros, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 4:44FLATroy BrouwerAssists: Juho Lammikko · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 6:35FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P1 11:03FLAJared McCannAssists: Dryden Hunt · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P1 19:59FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.33 xG4–1
- P2 1:32OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 4:39OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Maxime Lajoie · Deflected, 0.09 xG4–3
- P2 8:49FLAMicheal HaleyAssists: Juho Lammikko, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.15 xG5–3
- P2 16:29FLAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Juho Lammikko · Tip-in, 0.16 xG6–3
- P3 6:35OTTZack SmithAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mark Borowiecki · Deflected, 0.14 xG6–4
- P3 9:30OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Mark Stone, Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.12 xG6–5
- P3 18:20FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Juho Lammikko, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.11 xG7–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:17OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:23FLAMike Matheson: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:32FLAJared McCann: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:24FLANick Bjugstad: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:28OTTBobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:28FLAJared McCann: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:16FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:55FLAMike Matheson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:47OTTDylan DeMelo: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Haley – Lammikko7:03
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Bjugstad – Lammikko – Hunt2:53
xG 0.06–0.08 (41%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Trocheck – Huberdeau4:04
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- McCann – Hunt – Vatrano3:11
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 4–1goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Weegar15:50
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ekblad18:06
xG 0.86–0.94 (48%)attempts 14–22goals 4–3
- Yandle – Petrovic12:41
xG 0.35–0.92 (27%)attempts 15–23goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBoedker – Duchene – Batherson11:28
xG 0.62–0.36 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi7:32
xG 0.49–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Stone – Tierney – Tkachuk4:50
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Stone – White – Tkachuk7:36
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – DeMelo3:19
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- DeMelo – Lajoie6:24
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Jaros7:13
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).