Tue, Nov 20, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 16 | 15 | 111 | 11 | 423 |
| SJS | 210 | 18 | 07 | 00 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:09EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 10:32SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Joe Thornton, Kevin Labanc · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 1:46EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 19:04SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 3:32EDMDrake CaggiulaAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 0:51EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:41EDMOscar Klefbom: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:46EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:23EDMDrake Caggiula: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:34SJSErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Caggiula18:04
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian10:19
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Rattie – Khaira – Marody4:53
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Spooner – Nugent-Hopkins10:21
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Klefbom17:48
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Gravel – Benning11:01
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Russell – Nurse17:51
xG 0.45–0.67 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Sorensen – Labanc10:06
xG 0.57–0.40 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Kane – Donskoi12:24
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Couture – Hertl – Meier14:11
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Suomela6:59
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon13:41
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Ryan9:25
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Burns – Karlsson5:21
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).