Wed, Nov 21, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 07 | 112 | 226 |
| NJD | 211 | 311 | 06 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:26NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Andy Greene, Blake Coleman · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 6:50MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 16:55NJDNico HischierAssists: Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 8:59NJDTaylor HallGWGAssists: Egor Yakovlev, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 10:01NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jesper Bratt · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 13:47NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Damon Severson, Brett Seney · Snap, 0.19 xG1–5
- P3 10:52MTLMax DomiAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 5:31NJDMiles Wood: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:52MTLTomas Tatar: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 16:27NJDTravis Zajac: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Chaput – Agostino4:19
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi11:59
xG 0.58–0.48 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Danault – Hudon – Lehkonen4:03
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Kotkaniemi5:12
xG 0.05–0.04 (50%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Mete6:12
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Reilly – Ouellet4:41
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Reilly9:12
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier11:17
xG 0.60–0.36 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Johansson – Zacha – Bratt11:37
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood4:13
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Zajac – Hall – Coleman3:04
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher14:22
xG 0.53–0.38 (59%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Mueller – Yakovlev16:11
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson16:40
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).