Wed, Nov 21, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 0, New York Rangers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 011 | 05 | 013 | 029 |
| NYR | 311 | 15 | 111 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29NYRFilip ChytilGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 3:30NYRCody McLeodAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 8:04NYRNeal PionkPPAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 17:17NYRKevin HayesAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–4
- P3 16:19NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.05 xG0–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:00NYILeo Komarov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:51NYRKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:32NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:32NYRCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:59NYINick Leddy: Interference2 min
- P3 8:04NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:38NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:38NYRLias Andersson: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal9:53
xG 0.52–0.15 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier3:42
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Kuhnhackl3:34
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Johnston – Dal Colle5:00
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Pulock15:53
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Pelech12:15
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Hickey – Mayfield13:04
xG 0.41–0.51 (44%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Hayes – Chytil12:39
xG 0.62–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Strome – Howden – Andersson2:36
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fast – Zibanejad – Namestnikov7:34
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- McLeod – Fogarty – Andersson3:11
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – Pionk12:45
xG 0.57–0.54 (51%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo12:58
xG 0.62–0.60 (51%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Claesson17:17
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 6–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).