Wed, Nov 21, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 03 | 07 | 19 | 119 |
| PIT | 39 | 215 | 06 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:06PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 10:04PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–3
- P2 3:20PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Olli Maatta, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–4
- P2 8:52PITTanner PearsonAssists: Derek Grant · Slap, 0.05 xG0–5
- P3 7:55DALRoope HintzAssists: Alexander Radulov, Mattias Janmark · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:30DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:24DALBrett Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:55DALBrett Ritchie: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:47PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:54PITJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Faksa – Nichushkin5:24
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Janmark – Hintz2:55
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin3:41
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Comeau – Faksa – Janmark4:33
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Gleason10:44
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Polak – Hanley4:57
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Bayreuther – Heiskanen2:48
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel12:00
xG 0.97–0.27 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 2–1
- Brassard – Simon – Aston-Reese10:38
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Grant – Sheahan – Rust7:01
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Pearson11:42
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Riikola12:01
xG 0.76–0.09 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:22
xG 0.86–0.53 (62%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Oleksiak2:15
xG 0.29–0.36 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).