Wed, Nov 21, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 014 | 110 | 115 | 239 |
| WSH | 212 | 19 | 16 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54WSHTom WilsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:36WSHAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Jakub Vrana, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 9:28WSHMichal KempnyGWGAssists: Jakub Vrana, Lars Eller · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 11:37CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 5:23CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Artem Anisimov, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 7:12WSHDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Travis Boyd, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:10WSHTravis Boyd: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:37CHIGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:10WSHNic Dowd: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:14CHIBrandon Saad: Elbowing2 min
- P2 3:02CHIAndreas Martinsen: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:14WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Hayden – Martinsen2:12
xG 0.39–0.04 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- Fortin – Kampf – Kahun9:01
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Saad14:58
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Schmaltz – DeBrincat11:43
xG 0.60–0.64 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook14:45
xG 1.02–0.44 (70%)attempts 27–9goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Gustafsson2:17
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Forsling – Rutta9:52
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSmith-Pelly – Boyd – Burakovsky8:21
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson14:10
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 10–21goals 1–0
- Dowd – Jaskin – Stephenson6:34
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana11:22
xG 0.56–0.67 (45%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny13:02
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Djoos – Bowey11:31
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Orlov16:46
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 12–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).