Wed, Nov 21, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Ottawa Senators 4, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 110 | 313 | 427 |
| MIN | 215 | 211 | 28 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:10MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 19:49MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 6:00MINEric StaalPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 12:48OTTChris TierneyAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Christian Jaros · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 16:03MINMathew DumbaAssists: Jordan Greenway, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 0:52OTTThomas ChabotSHAssists: Zack Smith · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 11:32OTTChristian JarosAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 12:55OTTColin WhiteAssists: Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 14:02MINEric StaalGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 19:22MINEric FehrENAssists: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:39MINJordan Greenway: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:57OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:54MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:29OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:35OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:23MINEric Fehr: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:25OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:51MINMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:24MINJared Spurgeon: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – Tierney – Tkachuk3:15
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Boedker – Stone – Tierney5:20
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Paajarvi – Dzingel – White3:08
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Pyatt – Smith2:36
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Jaros8:20
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Chabot – Jaros2:23
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:25
xG 0.02–0.36 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:07
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 15–6goals 2–1
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown7:09
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund11:00
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Niederreiter8:55
xG 0.16–0.23 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:05
xG 1.00–0.48 (68%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba14:55
xG 0.68–0.22 (75%)attempts 19–10goals 2–1
- Pateryn – Seeler11:32
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).