Wed, Nov 21, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 7, Los Angeles Kings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 211 | 312 | 734 |
| LAK | 16 | 014 | 216 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:25COLVladislav KamenevPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Alexander Kerfoot · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 15:26LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P1 16:16COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 11:33COLPatrik NemethAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 17:49COLColin WilsonPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
- P3 1:10COLTyson BarrieAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 2:47COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Matt Nieto, Vladislav Kamenev · Snap, 0.09 xG6–1
- P3 8:24COLMatt CalvertAssists: Tyson Barrie, Carl Soderberg · Tip-in, 0.06 xG7–1
- P3 13:14LAKMatt LuffAssists: Austin Wagner, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.06 xG7–2
- P3 15:21LAKAustin WagnerAssists: Matt Luff, Derek Forbort · Snap, 0.12 xG7–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:57LAKKyle Clifford: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:08LAKIlya Kovalchuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:14COLNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:17COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:03COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:18LAKAnze Kopitar: Embellishment2 min
- P2 14:18COLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 16:43LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:46LAKDrew Doughty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:44
xG 0.92–0.28 (77%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Nieto – Andrighetto – Kamenev9:33
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost8:47
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Dries7:21
xG 0.31–0.72 (30%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard15:27
xG 0.98–0.76 (56%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Cole – Barrie14:20
xG 0.79–0.88 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 2–2
- Nemeth – Zadorov12:18
xG 0.46–0.68 (40%)attempts 10–17goals 2–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Clifford – Toffoli11:01
xG 1.00–0.57 (64%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Kovalchuk – Hagelin – Kempe2:18
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – Wagner – Luff3:11
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Carter – Wagner – Luff2:21
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort16:43
xG 0.99–0.51 (66%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Phaneuf – Fantenberg8:34
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
- Muzzin – Martinez16:06
xG 0.88–1.04 (46%)attempts 20–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).