Fri, Nov 23, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 111 | 110 | 13 | 435 |
| NJD | 012 | 118 | 212 | 00 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24NYIJordan EberleAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 11:48NJDTaylor HallUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 14:14NYIAnders LeeAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Scott Mayfield · Snap, 0.35 xG2–1
- P3 2:43NJDBrian BoyleAssists: Blake Coleman, Sami Vatanen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 12:45NYINick LeddyAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.33 xG3–2
- P3 19:49NJDMarcus JohanssonAssists: Taylor Hall, Will Butcher · Snap, 0.35 xG3–3
- OT 3:40NYIMathew BarzalGWGAssists: Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.48 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:43NYIThomas Greiss: Interference2 min
- P1 3:52NYILeo Komarov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:52NJDJesper Bratt: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:50NJDKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:41NYIRoss Johnston: Holding2 min
- P2 7:00NJDJesper Bratt: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Komarov – Kuhnhackl10:30
xG 0.57–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Gionta – Clutterbuck – Johnston2:15
xG 0.02–0.01 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier12:40
xG 0.78–0.78 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson9:43
xG 0.73–1.08 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock15:50
xG 1.31–0.32 (80%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy14:41
xG 1.09–1.25 (47%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech13:14
xG 0.87–1.57 (36%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier12:31
xG 1.24–0.45 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood8:57
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Dea – Seney4:15
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zacha – Bratt9:30
xG 0.48–1.26 (28%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Butcher6:28
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Severson – Butcher2:30
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Mueller4:36
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).