Fri, Nov 23, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 016 | 08 | 111 | 135 |
| CAR | 111 | 016 | 312 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:22CARJordan MartinookAssists: Lucas Wallmark, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P3 7:31CARJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Lucas Wallmark, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 8:32CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 14:04FLATroy BrouwerAssists: Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 18:00CARJordan MartinookENAssists: Lucas Wallmark · Wrist, 0.74 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:20CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:20FLAMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:20FLAMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:11CARJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:02FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:00FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Lammikko – Hunt2:55
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Sceviour – McCann2:27
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Huberdeau – Malgin5:17
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Hunt – Malgin3:45
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad14:25
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Weegar – Kiselevich15:23
xG 0.76–1.08 (41%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Yandle – Pysyk16:36
xG 0.81–1.21 (40%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov10:56
xG 1.47–0.16 (90%)attempts 20–6goals 2–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho10:33
xG 1.10–0.31 (78%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Rask – Di Giuseppe – Foegele7:43
xG 0.18–0.60 (23%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Williams – Staal – McGinn13:20
xG 0.36–0.82 (30%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Fleury10:43
xG 1.29–0.28 (82%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Slavin17:39
xG 1.04–0.87 (54%)attempts 22–15goals 0–0
- de Haan – Slavin2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).