Fri, Nov 23, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 2, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 13 | 013 | 112 | 228 |
| STL | 310 | 28 | 116 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:26STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Jordan Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:09STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Sammy Blais, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 14:12NSHNick BoninoPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 15:09STLBrayden SchennGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 0:36STLZachary SanfordAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 11:53STLRobby FabbriAssists: Robert Thomas · Slap, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 14:50STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Brayden Schenn, Robert Thomas · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–6
- P3 16:13NSHRyan HartmanAssists: Kevin Fiala, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:02STLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:15STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:15NSHRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:03STLZachary Sanford: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:28STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:43STLJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
- P3 4:20NSHAustin Watson: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:20NSHYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:23NSHRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:44STLIvan Barbashev: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:44NSHKevin Fiala: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Watson – Hartman2:23
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Fiala7:52
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Bonino – Smith – Jarnkrok3:11
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Jarnkrok2:52
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Josi – Ellis17:42
xG 0.49–0.58 (45%)attempts 17–16goals 0–2
- Hamhuis – Ekholm14:13
xG 0.59–0.81 (42%)attempts 25–13goals 1–2
- Weber – Bitetto11:05
xG 0.08–0.66 (11%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Fabbri – Thomas7:25
xG 0.94–0.16 (86%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- O'Reilly – Tarasenko – Sanford10:34
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Barbashev – Blais9:11
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Maroon – Perron – Bozak8:42
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Dunn14:20
xG 0.86–0.41 (68%)attempts 12–18goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Parayko14:23
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Schmaltz11:41
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).