Sat, Nov 24, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 5, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 315 | 27 | 528 |
| NYR | 112 | 19 | 19 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:12NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Jesper Fast, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 9:39NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Brendan Smith, Kevin Hayes · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 10:10WSHNic DowdAssists: John Carlson, Brett Connolly · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 16:27WSHJakub VranaUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 19:30WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 5:30NYRRyan StromeAssists: Brett Howden, Neal Pionk · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 13:36WSHBrett ConnollyGWGAssists: John Carlson, Jakub Vrana · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 18:52WSHTom WilsonENAssists: Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.48 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:25NYRJesper Fast: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:59NYRJimmy Vesey: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:27WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P2 0:59WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson13:36
xG 0.51–0.17 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana10:22
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Dowd – Jaskin – Stephenson8:50
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Boyd – Burakovsky6:18
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny17:44
xG 1.13–0.29 (80%)attempts 22–11goals 2–0
- Djoos – Siegenthaler11:38
xG 0.53–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov14:29
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 8–16goals 0–3
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Hayes – Chytil10:24
xG 0.47–0.24 (67%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Fogarty – Gettinger – Andersson4:28
xG 0.08–0.39 (18%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Strome – Vesey – Howden10:17
xG 0.28–0.76 (27%)attempts 10–13goals 1–3
- Fast – Zibanejad – Namestnikov12:48
xG 0.08–0.69 (10%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Skjei15:11
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Shattenkirk – Skjei2:20
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Claesson12:47
xG 0.24–0.82 (22%)attempts 9–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).