Sat, Nov 24, 2018·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 012 | 014 | 034 |
| TOR | 411 | 220 | 010 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45TORAndreas JohnssonGWGAssists: Connor Brown, Igor Ozhiganov · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:19TORAndreas JohnssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 7:44TORPatrick MarleauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P1 12:20TORAndreas JohnssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
- P2 11:07TORJosh LeivoAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.07 xG0–5
- P2 17:10TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.07 xG0–6
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weal won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Goulbourne – Lindblom8:31
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Laughton – Lindblom2:18
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Weal16:15
xG 0.48–0.74 (39%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny14:19
xG 0.37–0.84 (31%)attempts 21–19goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Folin17:44
xG 0.59–0.90 (40%)attempts 18–22goals 0–1
- Gudas – Sanheim17:18
xG 0.34–0.72 (32%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Hagg – Provorov18:39
xG 0.35–0.84 (30%)attempts 15–25goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Kapanen16:41
xG 0.94–0.44 (68%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Brown – Johnsson – Lindholm9:58
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 3–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner13:18
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 16–22goals 1–0
- Ennis – Leivo – Gauthier11:11
xG 0.01–0.20 (3%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Ozhiganov21:22
xG 1.07–0.54 (66%)attempts 21–18goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev18:31
xG 0.84–0.34 (71%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Rielly16:44
xG 0.59–0.50 (54%)attempts 25–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).