Sat, Nov 24, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 08 | 215 | 229 |
| COL | 06 | 112 | 218 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:11COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 11:32DALRadek FaksaAssists: Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 15:03DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 17:18COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 18:04COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Erik Johnson, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:07DALAlexander Radulov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:19COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:35DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 9:48DALTaylor Fedun: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:16DALRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:42COLVladislav Kamenev: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Janmark – Dickinson8:36
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Spezza – Shore – Hintz5:21
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Nichushkin5:59
xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin13:45
xG 0.33–0.71 (31%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Bayreuther3:39
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Fedun – Honka4:47
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Fedun – Lindell2:13
xG 0.02–0.01 (63%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:15
xG 1.21–0.29 (81%)attempts 24–5goals 2–1
- Soderberg – Calvert – Dries5:00
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Compher – Kamenev – Dries2:37
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost9:00
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie14:08
xG 0.67–0.14 (82%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Zadorov11:41
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard15:19
xG 0.33–0.88 (27%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).