Sat, Nov 24, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 0, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 014 | 08 | 033 |
| VGK | 411 | 110 | 115 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:14VGKWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Brayden McNabb, Jonathan Marchessault · Backhand, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 4:40VGKColin MillerAssists: Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 9:29VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 16:28VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P2 3:27VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Ryan Reaves · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–5
- P3 5:58VGKAlex TuchAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–6
Penalties (17)
- P1 8:36SJSMelker Karlsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:46VGKWilliam Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:06SJSEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:41SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:41SJSEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:41SJSEvander Kane: Abuse of officials10 min
- P2 15:41SJSEvander Kane: Abusive language10 min
- P2 16:34VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:34SJSEvander Kane: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P3 4:30VGKCody Eakin: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:30SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:14VGKWilliam Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:43SJSBarclay Goodrow: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:43SJSBarclay Goodrow: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:14SJSJustin Braun: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:14VGKRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:25VGKMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Karlsson – Suomela6:21
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Kane – Donskoi6:28
xG 0.13–0.27 (34%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc8:32
xG 0.46–0.74 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Couture – Hertl – Meier4:39
xG 0.14–0.83 (15%)attempts 5–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan11:59
xG 0.38–0.14 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Dillon9:54
xG 0.55–0.69 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Vlasic – Braun11:18
xG 0.41–0.84 (33%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:53
xG 1.06–0.05 (95%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare8:58
xG 0.72–0.26 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Carpenter – Carr – Nosek9:00
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Eakin – Tuch8:23
xG 0.22–0.58 (27%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore11:20
xG 0.69–0.19 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt12:59
xG 0.96–0.60 (62%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Holden – Miller12:18
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).