Sun, Nov 25, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 115 | 07 | 234 |
| LAK | 114 | 110 | 38 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Derek Forbort · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:19EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 2:16EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P2 4:13LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 4:27LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Derek Forbort, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:06LAKDustin BrownENAssists: Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–4
- P3 19:33LAKMatt LuffENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:07EDMKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:52LAKAnze Kopitar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:48LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:02EDMOscar Klefbom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:18EDMJujhar Khaira: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:37EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Holding2 min
- P3 11:49LAKTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:16EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Lucic – Kassian10:40
xG 0.71–0.51 (58%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Spooner – Draisaitl – McDavid13:13
xG 0.74–0.64 (53%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Caggiula9:18
xG 0.55–1.06 (34%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom17:41
xG 1.34–0.64 (68%)attempts 23–17goals 1–1
- Wideman – Gravel8:26
xG 0.27–0.64 (30%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse14:42
xG 0.59–1.04 (36%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo12:31
xG 0.77–0.63 (55%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Carter – Clifford – Toffoli8:52
xG 0.74–0.60 (55%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Thompson – Amadio2:41
xG 0.11–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kempe – Wagner – Luff8:39
xG 0.59–0.65 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort20:11
xG 0.95–0.79 (54%)attempts 22–25goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Martinez14:27
xG 1.14–1.01 (53%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – LaDue9:55
xG 0.34–0.61 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).