Mon, Nov 26, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 3, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 212 | 17 | 00 | 332 |
| FLA | 010 | 214 | 19 | 11 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:23NJDMiles WoodAssists: Sami Vatanen, Egor Yakovlev · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 6:01NJDBlake ColemanSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 7:31FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 11:43FLAJared McCannAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 11:27NJDJesper BrattAssists: Sami Vatanen, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 18:31FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evgenii Dadonov · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–3
- OT 1:28FLAMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:31FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:00NJDStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:35NJDMiles Wood: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 6:49NJDTravis Zajac: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:37NJDEgor Yakovlev: Holding2 min
- P3 3:34FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCann won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHall – Bratt – Hischier9:45
xG 0.90–0.39 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Boyle – Dea – Seney4:19
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Wood – Zacha7:04
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Dea2:28
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher8:46
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Severson – Butcher4:43
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Greene – Severson13:52
xG 0.18–0.44 (30%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Hoffman – Barkov12:38
xG 0.75–0.23 (77%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Brouwer – McCann – Hunt7:11
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Haley – Lammikko4:32
xG 0.14–0.16 (48%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Huberdeau – Vatrano5:51
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich13:44
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Yandle – Pysyk13:59
xG 0.77–0.70 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Matheson – Ekblad15:44
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).