Tue, Nov 27, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
San Jose Sharks 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 013 | 08 | 217 | 00 | 238 |
| BUF | 07 | 19 | 112 | 13 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:42BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Tage Thompson, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–1
- P3 4:14BUFNathan BeaulieuGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Casey Nelson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 11:29SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brent Burns, Timo Meier · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 16:42SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–3
- OT 1:41BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:23BUFEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:44SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:35BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:49BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:49SJSJoe Thornton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:38BUFEvan Rodrigues: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Kane – Donskoi9:40
xG 1.05–0.11 (91%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Couture – Hertl – Labanc3:51
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc7:48
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Radil6:28
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon11:02
xG 1.01–0.02 (98%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Karlsson7:03
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson2:08
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Eichel15:46
xG 0.47–0.36 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Elie8:57
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Pominville – Sobotka – Rodrigues9:27
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Thompson – Mittelstadt10:54
xG 0.38–1.01 (27%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dahlin18:09
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Nelson12:08
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen15:17
xG 0.39–0.93 (30%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).