Tue, Nov 27, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Montréal Canadiens 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 110 | 02 | 222 |
| MTL | 015 | 012 | 122 | 149 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:45CARVictor RaskAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Brock McGinn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:59CARTrevor van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 9:29MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:29CARJaccob Slavin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:24MTLAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:53CARWarren Foegele: Holding2 min
- P3 13:54CARJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Rask – Di Giuseppe – McGinn8:53
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov9:57
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Williams – Staal – Foegele10:39
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho9:55
xG 0.17–0.83 (17%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hamilton – Slavin17:48
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
- de Haan – Faulk15:37
xG 0.23–0.64 (27%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
- Slavin – van Riemsdyk2:10
xG 0.00–0.54 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Chaput – Agostino6:25
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault9:58
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Hudon – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi9:37
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Agostino – Danault – Lehkonen2:21
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak17:35
xG 1.17–0.34 (77%)attempts 29–15goals 0–0
- Weber – Schlemko14:58
xG 0.78–0.48 (62%)attempts 24–14goals 0–0
- Benn – Mete10:55
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).