Tue, Nov 27, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 114 | 111 | 25 | 430 |
| WPG | 110 | 29 | 08 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:01WPGBrandon TanevSHAssists: Ben Chiarot, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 18:13PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Dominik Simon, Jake Guentzel · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 0:39WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 4:40PITRiley SheahanAssists: Derek Grant, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 16:00WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 5:08PITDerek GrantAssists: Garrett Wilson, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 14:48PITZachary Aston-ReeseGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:29PITBrian Dumoulin: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:47WPGBryan Little: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:21PITBrian Dumoulin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Wilson – Sheahan5:22
xG 0.50–0.04 (93%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Brassard – Rust – Aston-Reese6:35
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Simon13:56
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Malkin – Rust – Pearson4:07
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin16:21
xG 0.59–0.20 (74%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Oleksiak13:04
xG 0.80–0.58 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Maatta – Riikola17:00
xG 0.15–0.50 (23%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Tanev12:09
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Petan – Lemieux – Roslovic3:59
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Little – Connor – Laine13:48
xG 0.74–0.82 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:49
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey16:36
xG 0.71–0.48 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 1–2
- Byfuglien – Chiarot14:06
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 1–2
- Myers – Chiarot2:41
xG 0.02–0.13 (16%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).