Tue, Nov 27, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Vegas Golden Knights 8, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 39 | 321 | 213 | 843 |
| CHI | 011 | 29 | 14 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10VGKDaniel CarrAssists: Tomas Nosek, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 12:14VGKAlex TuchUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 16:14VGKCody EakinAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 0:29CHIGustav ForslingAssists: Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 6:27VGKWilliam KarlssonPPGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 11:16CHIDylan StromeAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 13:16VGKRyan ReavesAssists: Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
- P2 19:54VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Deryk Engelland, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–2
- P3 5:48VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Ryan Carpenter, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.04 xG7–2
- P3 9:52VGKCody EakinAssists: Deryk Engelland, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.03 xG8–2
- P3 15:15CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.11 xG8–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:20VGKShea Theodore: Interference2 min
- P2 5:22CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:38CHIGustav Forsling: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:38VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:59CHIBrandon Manning: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Bellemare8:07
xG 1.19–0.05 (96%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Carpenter – Carr – Nosek9:41
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 10–1goals 2–0
- Pacioretty – Eakin – Tuch12:59
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 3–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:24
xG 0.45–0.99 (31%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore18:48
xG 1.36–0.42 (77%)attempts 23–9goals 3–0
- McNabb – Schmidt15:22
xG 1.02–0.76 (57%)attempts 14–14goals 3–2
- Holden – Miller15:53
xG 0.51–0.72 (42%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kampf – Kahun7:47
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat13:20
xG 0.60–0.57 (51%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Anisimov – Kruger – Fortin2:02
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Hayden11:38
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Manning12:52
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Seabrook – Gustafsson2:24
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Rutta13:45
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).