Wed, Nov 28, 2018·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
San Jose Sharks 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 113 | 113 | 115 | 341 |
| TOR | 39 | 18 | 112 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 10:40SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 11:19TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 19:42TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 1:53TORPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Tyler Ennis, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 4:18SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 10:59TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 18:02SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:53SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:32TORAndreas Johnsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:02SJSBarclay Goodrow: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:41TORNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:54SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:19TORTravis Dermott: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:33SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Karlsson6:22
xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Goodrow4:25
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc5:23
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Radil – Suomela3:16
xG 0.02–0.02 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun14:35
xG 0.85–0.20 (81%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Ryan11:55
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Dillon13:56
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Kapanen – Matthews8:52
xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Ennis – Leivo – Lindholm6:18
xG 0.10–0.10 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Brown11:52
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner12:26
xG 0.42–1.08 (28%)attempts 6–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Ozhiganov13:01
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Zaitsev14:20
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Rielly15:38
xG 0.48–1.35 (26%)attempts 8–26goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).