Thu, Nov 29, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 1, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 09 | 07 | 06 | 0 | 129 |
| BOS | 013 | 112 | 09 | 02 | 1 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:17NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Scott Mayfield · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 12:09BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 2. BOS Jake DeBrusk stopped
- 3. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 4. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 5. NYI Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 6. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 7. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 8. BOS Ryan Donato scored
Penalties (2)
- P2 8:05BOSNoel Acciari: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:43NYINick Leddy: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:05
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Kuhnhackl12:55
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier8:33
xG 0.38–0.78 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson13:54
xG 0.30–0.71 (30%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech12:39
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy19:40
xG 0.75–1.02 (42%)attempts 16–29goals 0–0
- Hickey – Pulock19:11
xG 0.32–1.37 (19%)attempts 10–25goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Cave – Pastrnak8:37
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Nordstrom – Donato – Acciari4:41
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Marchand – Cave – DeBrusk6:04
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Donato – Heinen – Acciari3:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (92%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Lauzon14:30
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Krug – Clifton17:07
xG 0.79–0.60 (57%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Moore14:53
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).