Thu, Nov 29, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 213 | 15 | 213 | 531 |
| WPG | 215 | 212 | 26 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:43WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Jacob Trouba, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 3:03CHIMarcus KrugerAssists: Andreas Martinsen, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 3:52WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 8:10CHIJohn HaydenAssists: David Kampf, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–2
- P2 1:01WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Cameron Schilling · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 1:46WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
- P2 9:31CHIJan RuttaAssists: David Kampf · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 1:18WPGPatrik LainePPUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG3–5
- P3 9:45WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.24 xG3–6
- P3 13:10CHIDominik KahunAssists: John Hayden · Slap, 0.40 xG4–6
- P3 17:08CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.17 xG5–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:04CHIGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P1 17:34WPGJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:55WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:49CHIBrendan Perlini: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:21CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHayden – Kampf – Kahun11:02
xG 1.57–0.23 (87%)attempts 15–4goals 3–0
- Toews – Saad – Perlini12:02
xG 0.58–0.09 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – DeBrincat2:47
xG 0.43–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kruger – Martinsen3:22
xG 0.40–0.06 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Manning5:45
xG 1.17–0.41 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 2–1
- Gustafsson – Rutta11:33
xG 0.91–0.70 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Keith – Rutta3:02
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers14:52
xG 1.58–0.52 (75%)attempts 22–14goals 3–0
- Little – Connor – Laine10:33
xG 0.33–0.74 (31%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev10:48
xG 0.04–0.47 (8%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Petan – Lemieux – Roslovic4:05
xG 0.06–1.62 (4%)attempts 2–10goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey18:38
xG 1.89–0.96 (66%)attempts 26–20goals 4–1
- Myers – Chiarot4:00
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–1
- Myers – Schilling10:54
xG 0.11–0.74 (13%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).