Thu, Nov 29, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 213 | 09 | 010 | 232 |
| EDM | 212 | 012 | 110 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Drake Caggiula, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 9:33EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 13:49LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 19:29LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 17:40EDMOscar KlefbomPPGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:26LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:00LAKAnze Kopitar: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:29EDMJujhar Khaira: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:12EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:59EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:58LAKAlex Iafallo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo16:08
xG 0.58–0.45 (56%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Carter – Clifford – Toffoli10:21
xG 0.45–0.50 (48%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Thompson – Wagner – Rempal4:11
xG 0.02–0.28 (7%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Kempe – Luff7:12
xG 0.03–0.53 (5%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Forbort18:22
xG 0.59–0.81 (42%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – LaDue10:05
xG 0.09–0.51 (15%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez16:38
xG 0.41–1.04 (28%)attempts 15–25goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid17:29
xG 0.91–0.36 (72%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Spooner – Khaira – Russell6:14
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi – Caggiula10:18
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian10:30
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGravel – Benning11:22
xG 0.75–0.01 (98%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Russell – Nurse15:58
xG 0.86–0.32 (73%)attempts 21–18goals 0–1
- Larsson – Klefbom18:27
xG 0.61–0.88 (41%)attempts 19–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).