Thu, Nov 29, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 112 | 211 | 431 |
| VAN | 110 | 014 | 212 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:46VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 14:00VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Ryan Reaves, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 3:05VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 1:13VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Cody Eakin, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 2:50VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Bo Horvat, Tim Schaller · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 8:48VANBrock BoeserAssists: Sam Gagner, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 13:35VGKWilliam KarlssonSHGWGAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:55VANAlex Biega: Interference2 min
- P1 4:30VGKColin Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:07VANTroy Stecher: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:14VGKWilliam Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P3 11:52VGKAlex Tuch: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Eakin – Tuch11:01
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare8:45
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Carpenter – Carr – Nosek7:51
xG 0.58–0.19 (76%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:20
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Miller11:35
xG 1.06–0.37 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- McNabb – Schmidt15:50
xG 1.00–0.32 (76%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Engelland – Theodore16:35
xG 0.60–0.91 (40%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSchaller – Motte – Gaudette2:35
xG 0.37–0.18 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Goldobin – Boeser – Pettersson11:48
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Granlund – Virtanen4:59
xG 0.03–0.02 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Horvat – Virtanen3:28
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev2:37
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hutton – Stecher16:59
xG 0.46–0.75 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Tanev14:48
xG 0.37–0.67 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).