Fri, Nov 30, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 3, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 117 | 210 | 336 |
| WSH | 18 | 110 | 413 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 0:08WSHTom WilsonSHAssists: Matt Niskanen, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 9:23NJDTravis ZajacSHAssists: Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
- P3 5:45WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Michal Kempny, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 10:57WSHNicklas BackstromPPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 12:35NJDNico HischierAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 18:10NJDMarcus JohanssonAssists: Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 18:30WSHAlex OvechkinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–5
- P3 19:37WSHNicklas BackstromENAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.74 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:02WSHLars Eller: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:38WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: Interference2 min
- P2 1:05WSHMadison Bowey: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:29NJDTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:39WSHTom Wilson: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P3 8:26NJDMiles Wood: Butt ending double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 10:17NJDSami Vatanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:56WSHMadison Bowey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Seney8:43
xG 1.12–0.41 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Johansson – Zacha – Bratt2:46
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier5:06
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier6:29
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher5:43
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Butcher3:59
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson11:43
xG 0.69–0.51 (57%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith-Pelly – Burakovsky5:24
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky5:12
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Dowd – Jaskin – Stephenson5:40
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson8:11
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bowey – Kempny3:21
xG 0.07–0.02 (76%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Djoos – Bowey8:54
xG 0.15–0.34 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov14:51
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).