Fri, Nov 30, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Anaheim Ducks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 08 | 114 | 11 | 229 |
| CAR | 121 | 05 | 08 | 00 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:57CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 16:10ANAPontus AbergAssists: Adam Henrique, Rickard Rakell · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–1
- OT 1:15ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.27 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:05ANAJake Dotchin: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:37CARJake Bean: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:02ANABrian Gibbons: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:58CARJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:01ANABrandon Montour: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:41ANAAndrew Cogliano: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:05ANAPontus Aberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:31CARJaccob Slavin: Interference2 min
- P3 12:57ANABrian Gibbons: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Sherwood3:10
xG 0.54–0.10 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Aberg5:36
xG 0.54–0.37 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gibbons – Rowney – Sherwood3:14
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase2:55
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Larsson9:10
xG 0.85–0.41 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Dotchin – Pettersson7:07
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Manson – Pettersson3:27
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov8:36
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Foegele – Bishop7:55
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho11:09
xG 0.52–0.55 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Williams – Rask – McGinn8:25
xG 0.01–0.63 (2%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bean8:08
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk2:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin15:40
xG 0.39–0.65 (38%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).