Fri, Nov 30, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 212 | 018 | 05 | 12 | 337 |
| COL | 012 | 15 | 112 | 00 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Joel Edmundson, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 19:29STLAlexander SteenPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 1:08COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Matt Nieto, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 2:13COLMikko RantanenPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.38 xG2–2
- OT 1:34STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Joel Edmundson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:49STLJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:59COLIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:59STLVince Dunn: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:33COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
- P1 17:40COLColin Wilson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:38COLErik Johnson: Elbowing5 min
- P2 3:38STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:38COLErik Johnson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 12:37COLPatrik Nemeth: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 15:13STLZachary Sanford: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:34STLDavid Perron: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:15STLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – O'Reilly – Tarasenko5:28
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Schenn – Fabbri6:39
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Maroon – Bozak – Blais8:36
xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko2:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson13:37
xG 0.89–0.15 (86%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko3:39
xG 0.32–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Bortuzzo8:06
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestAndrighetto – Compher – Kamenev3:46
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto8:22
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost6:57
xG 0.20–0.20 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:32
xG 0.19–0.39 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Zadorov7:55
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
- Alt – Nemeth5:27
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Nemeth2:17
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).