Fri, Nov 30, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 04 | 15 | 05 | 114 |
| CGY | 19 | 010 | 318 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36CGYMikael BacklundAssists: TJ Brodie, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 13:41LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Austin Wagner · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 7:44CGYJohnny GaudreauPPGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 19:28CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–3
- P3 19:52CGYSean MonahanENAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:34CGYSam Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:08LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:09LAKDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Thompson – Kempe – Luff4:57
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Amadio – Rempal4:01
xG 0.01–0.14 (7%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:51
xG 0.55–0.70 (44%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Kempe – Wagner – Luff6:48
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – LaDue12:15
xG 0.43–0.61 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez18:56
xG 0.60–1.04 (37%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Doughty – Forbort17:11
xG 0.16–0.63 (20%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan14:07
xG 0.96–0.05 (95%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Tkachuk13:42
xG 0.70–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Neal – Czarnik – Ryan9:29
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Lomberg5:57
xG 0.04–0.08 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie21:10
xG 1.12–0.35 (76%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin18:12
xG 1.09–0.55 (66%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Andersson – Kylington11:14
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).