Sat, Dec 1, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 2, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 116 | 114 | 238 |
| OTT | 05 | 312 | 310 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:30OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 9:49SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:56OTTBen HarpurAssists: Zack Smith, Magnus Paajarvi · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 13:45OTTMikkel BoedkerGWGAssists: Chris Tierney, Bobby Ryan · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 4:03OTTMark StonePPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 14:52OTTMagnus PaajarviENAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–5
- P3 18:00SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Brenden Dillon, Joakim Ryan · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 19:01OTTBobby RyanAssists: Cody Ceci, Mikkel Boedker · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:06SJSMarcus Sorensen: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:06OTTJustin Falk: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:26SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:47OTTCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:23OTTTom Pyatt: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:32OTTMark Stone: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:01SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Kane – Donskoi6:56
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Sorensen3:23
xG 0.18–0.08 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Karlsson5:58
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Couture – Goodrow – Hertl3:56
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon8:54
xG 0.51–0.26 (67%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun12:30
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–2
- Burns – Ryan9:32
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Dzingel – Batherson11:42
xG 0.70–0.24 (74%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Stone – White – Tkachuk13:06
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Ryan – Boedker – Tierney10:01
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi10:21
xG 0.18–0.87 (17%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot19:13
xG 0.89–0.64 (58%)attempts 18–25goals 1–0
- Falk – Jaros11:10
xG 0.07–0.26 (21%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Ceci – Harpur16:56
xG 0.28–0.49 (37%)attempts 8–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).