Sat, Dec 1, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 2, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 011 | 210 | 227 |
| VAN | 16 | 011 | 08 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:18VANBo HorvatAssists: Antoine Roussel, Tyler Motte · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P3 10:19DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 16:37DALAlexander RadulovGWGAssists: Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:16DALTaylor Fedun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:24DALJason Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:01VANAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:19DALAlexander Radulov: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:54VANAdam Gaudette: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:54DALGavin Bayreuther: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:54VANAdam Gaudette: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:50DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:30VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin5:19
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Shore2:56
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin7:43
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pitlick – Faksa2:02
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Hanley8:58
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Polak – Bayreuther16:15
xG 0.55–0.56 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen12:37
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGoldobin – Boeser – Pettersson11:04
xG 0.54–0.27 (67%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Gagner – Horvat – Virtanen9:10
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Schaller – Motte – Gaudette4:15
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Roussel – Granlund10:22
xG 0.05–0.48 (10%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Biega14:38
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Hutton – Stecher14:23
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Tanev13:17
xG 0.55–0.91 (38%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).