Sat, Dec 1, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 29 | 05 | 222 |
| MTL | 214 | 217 | 110 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53MTLShea WeberAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Max Domi · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 19:52MTLShea WeberAssists: Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 2:04MTLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Paul Byron, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 5:29MTLArtturi LehkonenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 8:10NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Brendan Smith, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 14:11NYRRyan StromePPAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 10:28MTLTomas TatarPPAssists: Kenny Agostino, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:35NYRJesper Fast: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:05MTLMax Domi: Embellishment2 min
- P2 7:05NYRLias Andersson: Interference2 min
- P2 9:04MTLBrendan Gallagher: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:33MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:58NYRBrady Skjei: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Hayes – Chytil9:56
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Fast – Zibanejad – Vesey12:53
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Fogarty – Gettinger – Lettieri7:12
xG 0.07–0.20 (27%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Strome – Howden – Andersson10:13
xG 0.22–0.75 (23%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Smith – Skjei15:14
xG 0.41–0.47 (46%)attempts 15–9goals 0–3
- Shattenkirk – Claesson16:03
xG 0.55–0.77 (42%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Staal – Pionk16:03
xG 0.25–0.67 (28%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Drouin – Domi13:32
xG 0.76–0.12 (87%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault11:02
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi10:14
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino8:39
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Kulak17:47
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Petry – Schlemko14:27
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Benn – Reilly14:56
xG 0.58–0.50 (54%)attempts 14–18goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).