Sat, Dec 1, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 19 | 28 | 426 |
| PIT | 111 | 111 | 010 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 5:42PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Robert Hagg, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:49PITRiley SheahanAssists: Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 6:52PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 0:51PHIDale WeiseSHGWGAssists: Scott Laughton, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:38PHIJakub VoracekENAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:54PITJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:54PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:47PITEvgeni Malkin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:47PHIDale Weise: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:42PITDominik Simon: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:34PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:04PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny10:05
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Voracek – Laughton – Raffl11:47
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Weise – Lindblom4:58
xG 0.09–0.27 (26%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Patrick7:11
xG 0.08–0.30 (20%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hagg15:09
xG 0.78–0.66 (54%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Gudas – Sanheim8:31
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gudas – Provorov3:46
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Simon13:09
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Grant – Sheahan – Rust3:04
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Aston-Reese10:41
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Pearson12:39
xG 0.56–0.64 (46%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Riikola11:42
xG 0.72–0.13 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Johnson – Oleksiak9:05
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:48
xG 0.73–0.56 (57%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).