Sat, Dec 1, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 014 | 16 | 012 | 132 |
| EDM | 118 | 07 | 19 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 12:17VGKWilliam KarlssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 5:50EDMRyan SpoonerGWGAssists: Jujhar Khaira · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:28VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:00VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P2 9:09EDMZack Kassian: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:24EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:32EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:38VGKColin Miller: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:36
xG 1.52–0.46 (77%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare7:03
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Carr – Nosek7:46
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Eakin – Tuch12:05
xG 0.71–1.08 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt14:21
xG 1.81–1.15 (61%)attempts 21–19goals 1–1
- Engelland – Theodore11:44
xG 0.78–0.61 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Holden – Miller13:37
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSpooner – Rattie – Khaira6:58
xG 0.56–0.06 (90%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian8:55
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi – Caggiula9:54
xG 0.29–0.82 (26%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid13:45
xG 0.88–1.60 (35%)attempts 15–24goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse14:53
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Russell – Gravel2:23
xG 0.05–0.20 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).