Sun, Dec 2, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Anaheim Ducks 6, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 29 | 37 | 625 |
| WSH | 311 | 28 | 013 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 6:08WSHChandler StephensonAssists: Nic Dowd, Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 9:24ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Rickard Rakell, Pontus Aberg · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P1 13:19WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 4:59WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 13:30WSHNic DowdAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Dmitrij Jaskin · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–5
- P2 14:31ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Jacob Larsson, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–5
- P2 15:26ANARickard RakellAssists: Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–5
- P3 7:16ANAPontus AbergPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Ondrej Kase · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 9:01ANAHampus LindholmPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Ondrej Kase · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–5
- P3 14:55ANAPontus AbergGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:06ANARickard Rakell: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:41ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:59ANAPontus Aberg: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 1:56WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:41ANANick Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:25WSHDmitry Orlov: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:10WSHDmitry Orlov: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:48ANAKiefer Sherwood: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Rakell – Kase4:07
xG 0.41–0.12 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Aberg6:05
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 1–2
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:32
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase4:29
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Montour15:43
xG 0.71–0.27 (72%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Manson – Larsson14:28
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Dotchin – Pettersson6:09
xG 0.47–0.28 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 1–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Connolly – Vrana10:31
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Dowd – Jaskin – Stephenson8:18
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Burakovsky9:23
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson12:55
xG 0.39–1.09 (27%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Kempny13:23
xG 0.88–0.83 (51%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- Carlson – Orlov2:05
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Djoos – Bowey12:20
xG 0.42–0.48 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).