Sun, Dec 2, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 013 | 310 | 08 | 2 | 442 |
| NYR | 14 | 27 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:32NYRJesper FastAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 12:11NYRMarc StaalAssists: Ryan Strome, Lias Andersson · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 18:54NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 2:10WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 4:36WPGJack RoslovicAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 17:30WPGBryan LittleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 2. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 3. NYR Mika Zibanejad scored
- 4. WPG Patrik Laine scored
- 5. NYR Jimmy Vesey stopped
- 6. WPG Mark Scheifele scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:25NYRBrendan Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:10NYRRyan Strome: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:22NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:57WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:50WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference2 min
- P3 1:56NYRBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Roslovic – Appleton6:58
xG 0.60–0.04 (93%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Little – Connor – Laine4:51
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev8:22
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers9:31
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey18:05
xG 1.17–0.72 (62%)attempts 20–13goals 2–2
- Myers – Chiarot10:58
xG 0.43–0.10 (82%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Myers – Schilling8:46
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Strome – Howden – Andersson7:38
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Fast – Zibanejad – Vesey13:59
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Fogarty – Lettieri6:40
xG 0.18–0.54 (25%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Kreider – Hayes – Chytil9:09
xG 0.08–0.70 (10%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Pionk16:19
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Claesson – DeAngelo4:41
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Smith – DeAngelo8:13
xG 0.28–0.67 (29%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).