Sun, Dec 2, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
San Jose Sharks 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 211 | 111 | 07 | 329 |
| MTL | 09 | 110 | 022 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55SJSJustin BraunUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 10:29SJSBrent BurnsPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 12:15MTLJeff PetryAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 15:51SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brent Burns, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:50MTLMike Reilly: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:48MTLMichael Chaput: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:52SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:53MTLShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 18:36MTLJeff Petry: Delaying game2 min
- P3 16:03SJSMelker Karlsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chaput won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Couture – Hertl10:50
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Radil7:48
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Suomela10:04
xG 0.71–0.60 (54%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc8:19
xG 0.03–0.35 (9%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Simek12:57
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Dillon14:17
xG 0.79–0.61 (56%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun15:24
xG 0.10–0.68 (13%)attempts 10–26goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Drouin – Domi11:30
xG 0.90–0.18 (83%)attempts 28–5goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:04
xG 0.27–0.27 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino8:11
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi8:41
xG 0.20–0.55 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Schlemko12:48
xG 0.85–0.40 (68%)attempts 20–11goals 1–2
- Weber – Kulak17:12
xG 0.94–0.86 (52%)attempts 23–22goals 0–0
- Benn – Reilly12:06
xG 0.28–0.61 (32%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).