Sun, Dec 2, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 2, Detroit Red Wings 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 113 | 19 | 229 |
| DET | 013 | 06 | 05 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:54COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.25 xG1–0
- P3 19:01COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:04COLMatt Nieto: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:06COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:48DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:51COLIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:51DETTyler Bertuzzi: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:38DETAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:38COLPatrik Nemeth: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen16:33
xG 0.81–0.17 (83%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Wilson – Compher – Jost8:51
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto11:06
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Kerfoot – Andrighetto8:18
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard16:00
xG 0.90–0.42 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Zadorov3:27
xG 0.35–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov8:53
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Mantha – Larkin2:04
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen7:17
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Nyquist – Athanasiou8:56
xG 0.02–0.22 (8%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Mantha – Larkin8:24
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Witkowski3:05
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Green – Cholowski2:05
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Cholowski8:52
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).