Sun, Dec 2, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 118 | 211 | 012 | 341 |
| CHI | 16 | 110 | 08 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07CGYSean MonahanAssists: Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 11:33CHIJonathan ToewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 7:18CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 8:44CGYDerek RyanPPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, James Neal · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 15:45CHIDylan StromePPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Corey Crawford · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:49CHIChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:57CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:42CHIBrandon Manning: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:42CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:47CGYSam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 7:08CHIChris Kunitz: Elbowing5 min · PPG
- P2 7:08CHIChris Kunitz: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 14:35CGYJames Neal: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 19:02CGYRasmus Andersson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:22CHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:22CGYGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:01CHIGustav Forsling: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:44CHIJan Rutta: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Mangiapane – Ryan5:31
xG 0.55–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan9:49
xG 0.98–0.68 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Backlund – Bennett – Tkachuk9:03
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Lomberg4:27
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie12:26
xG 0.79–0.23 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin11:32
xG 0.91–0.46 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Andersson – Kylington6:13
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Strome – DeBrincat2:15
xG 0.59–0.12 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Anisimov – Kruger2:47
xG 0.10–0.09 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Kampf – Kahun7:54
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Fortin3:27
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForsling – Rutta8:10
xG 0.75–0.68 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Keith – Rutta3:55
xG 0.07–0.07 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Manning7:14
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).