Mon, Dec 3, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 17 | 08 | 123 |
| NSH | 111 | 18 | 06 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:25NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 5:20BUFSam ReinhartUnassisted · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 16:34NSHKevin FialaGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:41NSHMiikka Salomaki: Holding2 min
- P1 15:04BUFNathan Beaulieu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:50NSHDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:26NSHAustin Watson: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:27NSHRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:19BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Eichel12:46
xG 0.95–0.34 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons8:05
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Sobotka – Elie – Rodrigues8:25
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Okposo – Thompson – Mittelstadt10:01
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Nelson10:34
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Pilut14:26
xG 0.83–0.68 (55%)attempts 11–22goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin2:55
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Salomaki – Sissons9:43
xG 0.35–0.09 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Grimaldi – Gaudreau5:15
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Tolvanen7:47
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Johansen – Hartman – Fiala11:28
xG 0.29–0.97 (23%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis17:35
xG 1.01–0.67 (60%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Weber – Irwin11:28
xG 0.23–0.37 (39%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ekholm16:04
xG 0.19–0.44 (31%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).