Mon, Dec 3, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 011 | 110 | 129 |
| DAL | 14 | 010 | 311 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:59DALJason DickinsonAssists: Mattias Janmark, Brett Ritchie · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P3 1:51DALBrett RitchieGWGAssists: Mattias Janmark · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 7:24DALJamie BennPPAssists: Gavin Bayreuther, Alexander Radulov · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 14:36EDMJujhar KhairaAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Chris Wideman · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 17:46DALEsa LindellENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:49DALAnton Khudobin: Interference2 min
- P2 10:02EDMMatt Benning: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:44EDMZack Kassian: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:16EDMZack Kassian: Abuse of officials10 min
- P3 9:01EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:01DALDevin Shore: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:01DALRoope Hintz: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:01EDMAlex Chiasson: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:01DALRoope Hintz: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:01EDMAlex Chiasson: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:15DALGavin Bayreuther: Delaying game2 min
- P3 19:25DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Chiasson – Draisaitl8:16
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Rattie – Khaira – Draisaitl2:28
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Rattie – Nugent-Hopkins – Caggiula3:22
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi – Russell2:50
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom18:47
xG 0.73–0.44 (62%)attempts 24–16goals 0–1
- Wideman – Gravel2:25
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Gravel – Benning6:29
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin3:53
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Janmark – Dickinson8:29
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin8:18
xG 0.24–0.24 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Radulov – Shore – Hintz5:16
xG 0.03–0.15 (16%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Hanley10:27
xG 0.71–0.23 (75%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Polak – Bayreuther14:53
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen19:34
xG 0.34–0.70 (33%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).