Tue, Dec 4, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Winnipeg Jets 3, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 03 | 015 | 36 | 324 |
| NYI | 08 | 012 | 18 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:33NYIAnders LeeAssists: Brock Nelson, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P3 3:39WPGJacob TroubaPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 4:01WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Brandon Tanev, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 19:57WPGNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Connor Hellebuyck · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:08WPGPatrik Laine: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:43NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:58NYIMathew Barzal: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 8:57WPGBrandon Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:32NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers15:07
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev9:22
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Roslovic – Appleton5:09
xG 0.03–0.11 (24%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Little – Connor – Laine10:47
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Schilling11:48
xG 0.89–0.42 (68%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Myers – Chiarot3:02
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Trouba4:03
xG 0.05–0.20 (21%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Nelson11:52
xG 1.02–0.48 (68%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:13
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Kuhnhackl9:00
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier11:02
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock15:22
xG 0.99–0.38 (72%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy13:09
xG 0.84–0.50 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech11:14
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).