Tue, Dec 4, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 113 | 17 | 230 |
| MTL | 117 | 312 | 112 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:30MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Max Domi, Matthew Peca · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 8:49OTTDylan DeMeloAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Chris Tierney · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 14:38MTLMax DomiAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 17:29MTLMax DomiGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 18:17MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
- P3 4:21MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 12:29OTTMark StoneAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:49MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:49MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:49OTTDrake Batherson: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:17OTTMark Stone: Kneeing2 min
- P1 19:29OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:29MTLMichael Chaput: Holding2 min
- P1 19:56MTLBrendan Gallagher: Holding2 min
- P2 3:55OTTChris Tierney: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:43MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:50MTLBrett Kulak: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:50OTTRyan Dzingel: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Smith – Duchene – Stone2:07
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Stone – White – Tkachuk9:20
xG 0.64–0.64 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–3
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi7:14
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
- Ryan – Boedker – Tierney10:39
xG 0.41–0.72 (36%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Jaros2:31
xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Harpur – Jaros3:39
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Ceci – Chabot3:28
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault10:51
xG 0.73–0.02 (97%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Shaw – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi4:37
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi6:26
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Byron – Drouin – Domi5:45
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Kulak14:14
xG 0.96–0.30 (76%)attempts 30–9goals 3–0
- Petry – Schlemko13:33
xG 0.92–0.33 (73%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Reilly13:47
xG 0.34–0.50 (41%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).