Tue, Dec 4, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Washington Capitals 3, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 19 | 18 | 326 |
| VGK | 17 | 010 | 411 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30VGKRyan ReavesPPAssists: Cody Eakin, Oscar Lindberg · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–1
- P1 15:33WSHJakub VranaAssists: Brett Connolly · Snap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 11:42WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Brett Connolly, Madison Bowey · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 2:33VGKPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Brayden McNabb, Nate Schmidt · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 2:49VGKCody EakinAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 11:40WSHJakub VranaAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 18:35VGKNate SchmidtPPGWGAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 19:53VGKNate SchmidtENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:03WSHBrett Connolly: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 8:05WSHMadison Bowey: Holding2 min
- P1 9:43VGKDaniel Carr: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:44WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:35WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Illegal equipment2 min
- P2 15:42VGKRyan Reaves: Interference5 min
- P2 15:42VGKRyan Reaves: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 3:53VGKColin Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:14VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:46WSHNic Dowd: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Connolly – Vrana7:41
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson8:13
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Dowd – Jaskin – Stephenson6:30
xG 0.13–0.32 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Burakovsky4:58
xG 0.08–0.58 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov12:01
xG 0.65–0.33 (67%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Kempny2:33
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny10:04
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Lindberg – Tuch7:56
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Carrier – Carpenter – Bellemare2:14
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare6:04
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault7:43
xG 0.34–0.35 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Miller11:02
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Engelland – Theodore10:04
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- McNabb – Schmidt12:59
xG 0.46–0.58 (44%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).