Wed, Dec 5, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 117 | 111 | 03 | 2 | 336 |
| STL | 215 | 07 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:05STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Jordan Nolan · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:32STLBrayden SchennAssists: Chris Butler, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 4:04EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Darnell Nurse, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 19:04EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Connor McDavid, Jujhar Khaira · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL Tyler Bozak scored
- 2. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 4. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 5. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:43STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:27EDMPatrick Russell: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:54STLBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:55STLVladimir Tarasenko: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:08EDMRyan Spooner: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:52STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
- OT 1:34STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSpooner – Rattie – Russell5:06
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian10:51
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira – Puljujarvi8:21
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid11:13
xG 0.48–0.70 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGravel – Benning8:47
xG 0.71–0.42 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse15:53
xG 0.99–1.00 (50%)attempts 22–10goals 1–2
- Larsson – Nurse2:20
xG 0.03–0.07 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestNolan – Sundqvist – Barbashev5:48
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Perron – Schenn – Kyrou7:27
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Tarasenko – Sanford7:03
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Sanford – Thomas3:32
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn9:46
xG 0.63–0.16 (79%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko15:24
xG 0.85–0.71 (54%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Edmundson2:00
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).