Thu, Dec 6, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Colorado Avalanche 5, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 113 | 110 | 314 | 537 |
| FLA | 110 | 114 | 011 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:40COLMikko RantanenAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:53FLAColton SceviourAssists: Bogdan Kiselevich, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:44COLCarl SoderbergSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 6:19FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Jared McCann, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 6:21COLJ.T. CompherGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 7:05COLMatt NietoAssists: Carl Soderberg, Colin Wilson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 18:26COLGabriel LandeskogENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:51FLABogdan Kiselevich: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:47COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:00COLVladislav Kamenev: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:48COLAlexander Kerfoot: Holding2 min
- P2 13:54FLAMike Matheson: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:55COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:15COLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P3 12:34FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:48FLATroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Compher – MacKinnon3:24
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost6:24
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Nieto2:07
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
- Bourque – Compher – Kamenev3:34
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard11:20
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Zadorov10:49
xG 0.75–0.82 (48%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Johnson – Cole2:00
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov12:09
xG 1.26–0.32 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Dadonov – McCann – Vatrano8:34
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Sceviour – Haley4:22
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Lammikko – Hunt10:00
xG 0.10–0.50 (17%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad13:05
xG 1.37–0.24 (85%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson14:16
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Weegar – Kiselevich9:26
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 9–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).