Thu, Dec 6, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 213 | 012 | 14 | 11 | 430 |
| PHI | 16 | 05 | 215 | 00 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:06CBJSeth JonesAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 18:08CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Scott Harrington, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 5:15CBJBoone JennerAssists: Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 12:24PHITravis SanheimAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 14:29PHITravis SanheimAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 0:10CBJSeth JonesGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:18CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:51PHIJori Lehtera: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 14:25PHIRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:12PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:30PHIRadko Gudas: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:00PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:09CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:29CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Anderson – Panarin5:41
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Foligno – Atkinson – Jenner3:03
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Sedlak – Hannikainen7:20
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Bjorkstrand – Wennberg – Dubois2:47
xG 0.06–0.06 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Harrington8:14
xG 0.74–0.05 (93%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Werenski – Nutivaara5:39
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Jones – Werenski4:49
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Simmonds – Patrick5:32
xG 0.43–0.05 (91%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny12:58
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Voracek – Laughton – Raffl6:39
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Weise – Lindblom2:02
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov10:47
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Gudas – Provorov2:40
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim4:27
xG 0.12–0.28 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).