Thu, Dec 6, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 3, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 17 | 213 | 329 |
| VAN | 214 | 211 | 15 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:48VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Nikolay Goldobin, Elias Pettersson · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 19:33VANBo HorvatAssists: Jake Virtanen, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 7:21NSHRyan HartmanAssists: Yannick Weber, Ryan Johansen · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 8:57VANJake VirtanenAssists: Antoine Roussel, Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 18:49VANElias PetterssonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–4
- P3 1:21VANLoui ErikssonAssists: Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–5
- P3 5:17NSHColton SissonsAssists: Roman Josi, Miikka Salomaki · Snap, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 18:37NSHMatt IrwinAssists: Yannick Weber, Colton Sissons · Deflected, 0.01 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:29NSHAustin Watson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:22VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:57NSHCalle Jarnkrok: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:49NSHMattias Ekholm: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:20NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Jarnkrok – Tolvanen11:47
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Johansen – Hartman – Fiala12:21
xG 0.36–0.38 (48%)attempts 13–6goals 1–2
- Bonino – Grimaldi – Gaudreau9:14
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons9:08
xG 0.36–0.71 (34%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin11:05
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Josi – Ellis19:08
xG 0.89–0.86 (51%)attempts 18–19goals 1–2
- Hamhuis – Ekholm18:41
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Boeser – Pettersson10:56
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Horvat – Virtanen – Goldobin7:55
xG 0.38–0.12 (77%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Roussel – Gaudette8:50
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Motte – Horvat – Virtanen2:56
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Hutton20:11
xG 0.99–0.49 (67%)attempts 21–20goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev16:06
xG 0.74–0.74 (50%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Pouliot – Stecher12:39
xG 0.17–0.44 (27%)attempts 5–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).