Thu, Dec 6, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 217 | 18 | 335 |
| VGK | 215 | 011 | 210 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 8:14VGKDeryk EngellandAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 4:00CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: David Kampf, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 16:15CHIDylan StromeAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 7:14CHIArtem AnisimovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 7:55VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 8:07VGKAlex TuchGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:19CHIArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:33VGKColin Miller: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:13VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:17VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:45CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:35VGKTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Kahun11:20
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Perlini – Strome – DeBrincat5:07
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kruger – Hayden – Martinsen6:20
xG 0.24–0.35 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat7:14
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Rutta3:12
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Keith – Jokiharju9:29
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:30
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestLindberg – Carpenter – Nosek7:40
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare8:32
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:40
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
- Pacioretty – Eakin – Tuch10:39
xG 0.33–0.91 (26%)attempts 9–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore16:02
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 21–16goals 2–1
- McNabb – Schmidt18:09
xG 0.97–1.02 (49%)attempts 20–22goals 1–1
- Holden – Miller10:50
xG 0.18–0.72 (20%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).